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基于结构可靠性方法的贝叶斯模型更新:氯盐侵蚀耐久性案例分析

肖雄 王泽宇 李全旺 曹迈

肖雄, 王泽宇, 李全旺, 曹迈. 基于结构可靠性方法的贝叶斯模型更新:氯盐侵蚀耐久性案例分析[J]. 工程力学, 2022, 39(S): 336-341. doi: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.07.S060
引用本文: 肖雄, 王泽宇, 李全旺, 曹迈. 基于结构可靠性方法的贝叶斯模型更新:氯盐侵蚀耐久性案例分析[J]. 工程力学, 2022, 39(S): 336-341. doi: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.07.S060
XIAO Xiong, WANG Ze-yu, LI Quan-wang, CAO Mai. BAYESIAN MODEL UPDATING BASED ON STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY METHOD: CASE STUDY FOR CHLORIDE-INDUCED DURABILITY ANALYSIS[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2022, 39(S): 336-341. doi: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.07.S060
Citation: XIAO Xiong, WANG Ze-yu, LI Quan-wang, CAO Mai. BAYESIAN MODEL UPDATING BASED ON STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY METHOD: CASE STUDY FOR CHLORIDE-INDUCED DURABILITY ANALYSIS[J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2022, 39(S): 336-341. doi: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.07.S060

基于结构可靠性方法的贝叶斯模型更新:氯盐侵蚀耐久性案例分析

doi: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2021.07.S060
基金项目: 清华大学国强研究院资助项目(2021GQC0003);国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFE0112800)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    肖 雄(1997−),男,江西人,博士生,主要从事结构可靠度研究(E-mail: xiaox19@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn)

    王泽宇(1992−),男,安徽人,博士后,主要从事结构可靠度研究(E-mail: zeyu1116@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn)

    曹 迈(1998−),男,河北人,博士生,主要从事结构可靠度研究(E-mail: caom20@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn)

    通讯作者:

    李全旺(1975−),男,天津人,副教授,博士,主要从事结构可靠度研究(E-mail: li_quanwang@tsinghua.edu.cn)

  • 中图分类号: TU311.2

BAYESIAN MODEL UPDATING BASED ON STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY METHOD: CASE STUDY FOR CHLORIDE-INDUCED DURABILITY ANALYSIS

  • 摘要: 贝叶斯模型更新是一种基于先验知识和最新观测数据,具有减少工程模型不确定性的计算能力的技术。通过将贝叶斯更新问题重新解释为结构可靠性问题,最新的BUS算法(即采用结构可靠性方法的贝叶斯更新)为快速和稳健的后验密度估计开辟了新的途径。为了实现氯盐侵蚀耐久性模型参数快速准确更新的目标,该文采用基于子集模拟的BUS方法。通过研究一个工程指导的复杂混凝土耐久性模型,证明了计算效率和精度。结果表明,模型参数的统计特性可以根据现场监测的信息成功地更新,并与简单拒绝采样估计的结果接近。
  • 图  1  考虑碳化影响的氯离子侵入混凝土简化为移动边界问题

    Figure  1.  The idealized moving boundary problem for the influence of carbonation on the chloride ingress into concrete

    2  子集模拟完整过程

    2.  The complete process of subset simulation

    图  3  三个参数的先验边际累积分布以及简单拒绝采样和子集模拟得到的后验边际累积分布

    Figure  3.  Prior and empirical posterior marginal CDF estimated through simple rejection sampling and subset simulation

    图  4  对各时间点钢筋位置处标准化氯离子浓度的预测

    Figure  4.  Prediction of the normalized chloride concentration at the location of reinforcement

    表  1  X的先验分布

    Table  1.   The prior distribution of X

    参数变量先验分布类型统计特征
    X1对数正态分布众数:1.2,标准差:1
    X2对数正态分布众数:1.0,标准差:1
    X3对数正态分布众数:0.9,标准差:1
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  时刻t = 3×108 s钢筋开始锈蚀的可靠度更新结果(100次重复模拟)

    Table  2.   Updating reliabilities of reinforcement corrosion initiation at t = 3×108 s (results of 100 repeated simulation)

    方法失效概率变异系数/(%)可靠度采样数
    简单拒绝采样1.13×10−27.062.28107
    子集模拟1.19×10−2100.152.262000(每轮)
    下载: 导出CSV
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    Chen Long, Huang Tianli. Dynamic prediction of reliability of in-service RC bridges using the Bayesian updating and inverse Gaussian process [J]. Engineering Mechanics, 2020, 37(4): 186 − 195. (in Chinese) doi: 10.6052/j.issn.1000-4750.2019.05.0273
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-07-02
  • 修回日期:  2022-02-24
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-03-23
  • 刊出日期:  2022-06-06

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